Is Biden trying to start a war, or what?

Or, three theories on how to give the Ukraine a chance of surviving

Dear God, the man’s alive!

Joe Biden has been largely inert since the candidacy was ripped from his cold, dead hands, but suddenly, this week, he sprang back to life—almost as if invigorated by the humiliation of his vice president and his party.

First, he ensured Ukraine would receive the $275 million he promised before Trump becomes president in January. Then, he removed restrictions on American weapons so Ukraine can finally lob ATACMS missiles (pronounced “Attack-ems”) across the border into Russian territory.

And now, he’s given them landmines—gasp! It’s almost as if Biden thinks there’s some kind of war going on.

Good enough to keep losing indefinitely

Until now, Biden’s support for Ukraine has been just enough to keep them from losing, but not enough to help them win. It feels like that was the plan—to keep this war going forever without resolution.

We’ve seen that happen before. Many conservatives, back in the day, complained that we did the same thing in Vietnam—sending just enough troops to keep the South going, but not enough for them to win. The word we inherited from that era is quagmire.

That’s probably not entirely true

The truth is more likely that, no matter what we did, the war in Vietnam couldn’t have been won. That may have been true in Afghanistan and might also be true today in Ukraine—who can say for sure?

What we can say for sure is that half-hearted warriors shouldn’t be in the business of war. Half-hearted is the word that best describes Biden’s commitment—and the commitment of the left in general.

It also seems out of character. Why is Biden doing this a few weeks before leaving office when he refused to do it until now?

I think it’s less about Ukraine than it is about Trump.

Here are my theories:

1. Biden is trying to f*ck Trump up

There’s a general and realistic fear that Trump will throw Ukraine to the wolves as soon as he returns to the White House by forcing a peace deal that gives everything to Putin.

If Biden can manage to escalate the war, that might make negotiating peace next to impossible. This could have horrific consequences for the men and women on the ground (and yes, I’ve heard Germans speak of Russian nukes howling toward Berlin), but at least it would make Trump lose. That may be Biden’s priority right now.

That’s the cynical theory. There’s also the magnanimous one:

2. Biden is magnanimously giving Trump a better bargaining position

What did Trump and Biden discuss during their two-hour meeting in the White House? The draftiness of the Lincoln Bedroom? Tips on which cook makes the best hamburgers?

Or did they talk about giving Ukraine something to negotiate with?

If Ukraine manages to turn the tables on Russia in the next six weeks—or even just to scare Putin—it might put them in a position of strength. I’m pretty sure there’s something in Trump’s book The Art of the Deal about entering negotiations from a position of power.

3. Biden wants to change the narrative completely

Trump’s implied threat of handing Ukraine to Putin on a silver platter is based on the current situation, which is pretty much hopeless—no one seems to be winning, the war could drag on forever, and America could go on paying for it forever.

That’s the situation that makes Trump want to negotiate—but what if, suddenly, the situation changed?

In a different scenario, Trump might think differently.

What if, come January, it looks like Ukraine has a chance to win? Would Trump still want to hand it over to Putin? Or would he reassess the situation, see victory on the horizon, and go all in?

My final, dimmest glimmer of hope for the Ukraine

I have no idea whether the war in Ukraine is winnable or not—but if it is, it would be good for Europe and the West in general to win it.

Trump isn’t stupid—he knows it’s in the interest of the West and democracy to keep Putin at bay. He just doesn’t think it’s possible.

If he can be convinced the war is winnable (maybe without Pyrrhic losses), he might make a 180-degree turnaround come January and try to finish the war the Democrats started.