Are the bad guys afraid of Trump?
Or, Who is better on foreign policy? My Voting Diary, Day 11.
I remember the excited discussions I had online when the Iran-backed terrorist attacked two non-American oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman in 2019.
The discussion started immediately, even before Trump responded, and my leftist friends, with their superhuman ability to see into the future knew this meant World War III:
Trump was waiting for this to happen! He’s a war-monger! He’s going to impose military rule!
Also, there was something about oil.
Of course, none of these predictions came true – Trump responded moderately but firmly and Iran backed down.
What impressed me was how fast and eagerly they rolled out that argument. They were faster than Trump. It was like they had been sitting on this hot nugget since the election, impatient to use it, and now they finally had their chance, even though they had no idea what was going on.
It reminded me of the old joke about the child who homes home from school and hands Mom a note:
Kid: Mom! Guess! what! I! learned! in! school! today!
Mom: What?
Kid: Exclamation! Points!
What did Trump actually do?
Trump has called himself a nationalist, and I think what he means by that is “isolationist,” like so many Republican presidents.
I am not an isolationist – I believe America has a great responsibility in the world, and I was worried at first that Trump would let the world go to hell. But instead he rose to the occasion and acted wisely and effectively:
When North Korea once more began rattling their swords and testing atom bombs, Trump not only reacted calmly, he did something never done before: He went over and shook hands with the guy. If Obama had done that, he would have been praised as a great peacekeeper.
Trump assassinated Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian commander of Quds (which coordinates with Hamas and Hezbollah) who played a leading role in the Syrian Civil War and in closing the noose around Israel’s neck. Thank you!
When Syria used chemical weapons on their own people, Trump vowed to retaliate, risking war with Russia, which backs Syria. He attacked, but warned Russia beforehand. Russia backed down and Syria did not use chemical weapons again.
Trump pulled the US out of Syria and Afghanistan. You can argue that he let those regions go to hell, and there is truth to that. But you can also argue that the US was doing no good there and that both situations were losing propositions and had to be stopped sooner than later. We’ve had presidents before who hesitated to pull out of failed wars before, and it never proud.
Trump moved the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem – that was brilliant and long overdue.
Trump successfully mediated the Abraham Accords normalizing relations between Israeli and several other Arab states. US presidents have been trying to do something like that for decades. It has been rightly suggested that any other president would have received a Nobel Peace Prize for that.
Does Trump love dictators?
The left is legally obligated to interpret everything Trump does or says as having something to do with Hitler, so Trump’s every action and word are carefully combed over for signs that he admires dictators and wants to be one himself.
Thus, he colluded with Putin to steal the 2016 election (debunked), shook hands with the North Korean Supreme Leader (supposedly legitimizing him) and, most importantly, made random comments about what a successful leader Putin is and how brilliant Hitler was.
But it’s not just Trump who is guilty of comments like those.
Churchill famously said that “democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried.”
I remember my conservative father often saying that it’s easier to get things done in a dictatorship – that’s why they can kill so many people in so short a time. One of the main points of democracy, he told me, is to stop any leader having too much power.
I recently read William L. Shirer’s The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, in which he frequently calls Hitler “brilliant,” especially in diplomatic terms.
Yes, you can interpret those comments as signs that Trump admires dictators – but only if you want to. You can also interpret as self-irony in the American tradition.
Do dictators love Trump?
Yes.
But not all dictators. Some prefer Kamala Harris.
Dictators are hyper-aware of American presidents and the power they wield, and they choose their favorites accordingly. You can tell which presidents they prefer by how they try to stop the other guy.
Iran:
According to the CIA, the Iranians have planned or are planning to attempt to assassinate Trump. Now that the plan has come to light, it’s unlikely that an attempt will be executed, but it’s clear that Iran is definitely in Harris’s camp.
That suggests that Iran feels it will be easier to get around Harris than around Trump.
Russia:
Russian troll farms are focusing heavily on attacking Harris in favor of Trump.
That implies that Putin is gambling on Trump dropping the Ukraine, at least in part, and he may be right.
China:
China’s troll farms are more democratic than Iran or Russia: They attack both sides. China’s goal (and Russia also does this) is to destabilize American society by promoting dissatisfaction with democracy and with everything American.
But Biden’s foreign policy wasn’t that bad, was it?
Kamala Harris has no track record in foreign policy to compare, so we have to look at Biden’s.
And his track record isn’t bad at all.
In most ways, he was a typical leftist president, re-signing the Paris Accords (on climate) and generally stressing harmony over confrontation.
But while the extreme left vilifies America as a colonizer and imperialist and demonizes the military industrial complex, Biden took a clear stance against China and Russia, openly went after their anti-American cyber-warriors and publicly declared that no other country should ever have as much military might as the US. Thank you, Biden.
Most importantly, he supported both the Ukraine and Israel against Russia and Hamas.
So who is better for foreign policy – Trump or Harris?
If the election were a menu, you could either order the Harris and you’d get both Ukraine and Israel, or you could order the Trump and get just Israel.
But there are doubts on both sides.
Trump will clearly and strongly support Israel, but he has implied that he is willing to throw Ukraine under the bus.
That is worrisome, but on the other hand, he has never done anything that irresponsible before. Take NATO: He threatened to get the US out of NATO if Europe didn’t take on more responsibility, but didn’t follow through: It was a bluff.
And even if Trump does pull the US out of Ukraine – that might force the EU to wake up and start worrying about its own defenses instead of always relying on Big Brother America. I would like to see a strong EU that can defend itself.
On the other hand, we can count on Kamala Harris supporting both the Ukraine and Israel, though her support for Israel will be weaker, as she must constantly kowtow to her extreme left-wing constituency.
On those grounds, I tend toward Harris.
But a nagging question is holding me back:
How valuable will Harris’s support even be?
Even Biden kept waffling on Israel, and though he shoveled huge amounts of cash into the Ukraine, it was always enough to keep going, but never enough to win.
Harris will be no improvement – if anything, she will be worse.
Under Harris, I can see both wars going on indefinitely.
Under Trump, I can at least imagine some kind of end.
I can’t help thinking of Jimmy Carter
I liked Jimmy Carter. He was a genuinely good person. But the success or failure of his presidency hinges on a discussion that was very prominent back then:
Republicans claimed Carter was too nice – foreign leaders didn’t take him seriously. Back then, I agreed with the Democrats, who scoffed at the idea: We’re living in a new, better age, we all thought – America doesn’t need a tough guy-president.
Then I watched as Iran trampled all over Carter, like Hitler trampled all over Chamberlain.
It was my first lesson in how the world really works.
We’re having the same discussion today, though we don’t know it.
The Republicans gleefully point out that no wars started under Trump, unlike under Biden.
The left says that was sheer coincidence, while conservatives claim rogue states are too afraid of Trump to try anything while he is in office.
Who is right? Does the world today need a tough-guy American president?
I’m going to say: Better safe than sorry.
The Score
Though I’m sure the world would survive a Kamala Harris foreign policy, Trump is clearly the man for a crisis.
So this point goes to him, alongside a prayer that there is a good solution in there somewhere for the Ukraine.